Firm Leadership

Rants, Raves, Rebuttals, Reflections, Revelations & Ruminations

Here are a few more of the trends that our friend Watts Wacker, the renowned futurist, sees ahead:

* Accelerated Online Sales: We are going to see an increase in the increase of buying online. Online shopping and technology has moved beyond the early adopters and the mainstream. It is now so well established it is drawing in the laggards. Watts drew an analogy from hearing a cell phone ringing during a church service. He said don't assume it is just a rude person. It is probably someone in his 70's who just purchased a cell phone for the first time who doesn't yet realize what the rest of us have known for some time about cell phone etiquette.

* Homeopathic Medicine: The recent decision by Merck withdrawing the drug Vioxx has people concerned over whether traditional medicine has been tested properly. People are taking more preventative med icines. Using natural remedies and alternative remedies will gain ground.

* Low-impact Makes an Impact: Aging Baby Boomers are looking for exercise that is easier on them. A perfect example is low-impact exercise such as Tai Chi and yoga. But not all low impact exercise is Eastern. Low impact includes swimming, spinning, and other exercise not as hard on aging bodies.

* Image Enhancement: No, not our personal images. Watts sees the cult trend of photoshopping (manipulating images using Photoshop software) going mainstream. He sees a rise in the use of technology to have images appear exactly the way we want them to create a new "reality." For instance, a blended family might eliminate a divorced spouse from a photo -- even add in the new spouse.

* Technology Convergence: Watts sees bundling between broadband, wireless and other communications technologies. Voice, wireless, Tivo, messaging -- they all will converge. You'll retrieve cell phone messages through your computer, and computer messages through your cell phone.

Stay tuned . . .

Want to know the trends that will be hot in 2005? Watts Wacker, the renowned futurist, recently outlined what we should expect to see heat up in 2005 and beyond. Watts says we can expect to see four macro-level trends that affect society in general and businesses of all sizes:

1. Rise of the Gray Hairs: One of the greatest demographic shifts in the United States ever will happen in 2005. Every single Baby Boomer will be 40 or over. He is one himself and as he points out, Baby Boomers tend to think they are the arbiters of taste and style. While that's not necessarily true, the aging Baby Boom generation is a significant force.

2. Premium is In: There is a continued move toward premium-ness. People are trading up from standard level. Think of Honda cars with heated seats. Or premium cookies.

3. Trend of "Anti-trending": Companies will leverage their greatest strengths, even in contrarian ways. Hardee's new 1400 calorie hamburger is an example. Just as Wendy's, McDonald's and other fast food restaurants are seeing that fat could be the next tobacco in litigation, at same time they are offering 1400 calorie hamburgers.

4. Lock it Up: We will see more emphasis on safety and security. Keeping things safe will be at the top of people's minds. This applies to online security as well as security in the physical world, and it applies to everything from services to goods.

The Wall Street Journal has reported that other Asian countries -- who altogether with China and Japan included -- hold an eye-popping $1.9 TRILLION in U.S. foreign reserves -- and are starting to dump U.S. debt. When a massive holder like China stops buying U.S. debt and starts dumping, it's a much, MUCH bigger deal. Pressure on U.S. bond yields will skyrocket. Other foreign investors will run from dollar-priced securities in a panic. Long interest-rates will jump. And U.S. consumers, businesses, and investors will get crushed in the jaws of a very powerful "Treasury Trap"!

To finance all its foreign debt, the United States has to spend a breathtaking $55 million per hour . . . or $1.3 billion per day . . . just to keep enough liquidity in the system to cover overseas interest-payment obligations.

China has ALSO hoarded piles and piles of ever-cheaper U.S. dollars. They've now got more than $310 billion in U.S .dollar reserves! Again, you have to ask: If U.S. dollars are backed by an overextended federal government . . . and if other major governments worldwide are already talking about switching reserves to gold and euros . . . if America's money isn't worth the paper it's printed on . . . Why would China want to keep so much of their newfound wealth in the U.S. dollar, a currency that's already down more than 50% since October 2000?

Again, it's simple. Since 1995, the Chinese currency -- the yuan -- has been pegged to the dollar at the weak exchange rate of 8.28 to the dollar. No matter how low the dollar goes, the yuan goes with it. So no matter how low the dollar goes . . . it's virtually impossible to close any currency-related trading gap we've got with China! It's like seeing how long two enemies can hold their breath under water. Whoever can withstand having a dirt-cheap currency the longest wins. But so far, judging just by the trading deficit, it looks like China is winning. And the U.S. is running out of options.

In the Unite d States, American Metal Ware had made nearly 2.5 million pots in their Wisconsin factory . . . before they had to shut it down. Chinese manufactures stole the design and cranked out copies at half the price. To compete, Metal Ware had to move over to China. Levi's were the all-American brand. They once had 63 U.S. plants. They just closed the last two and fired all the workers. Levi's will be made in China now. Walt Disney was an all-American success story. But Disney's "Winnie the Pooh" dolls are made not here, but in the same place as Dr. Scholl's sandals and Foster Grant Sunglasses -- China. How about Wilson tennis balls or Black & Decker drills? Silk flowers, sneakers, wood furniture, and hand-held "Game Boy" video games? All sold here, but all manufactured in . . . China.

Chinese workers average 61 cents an hour. US factory workers average $16 an hour. In other words, US workers make more in two weeks than most Chinese laborers make in a whole year! Nobody outside of China can compete with that. Just check out the numbers: Over 450 U.S. companies are based in China. That's more than 10 times the number of U.S. companies there in 1990. They've got combined annual sales of $23 billion. And more than 250,000 employees. In fact, U.S. investment in China is now a record $33 billion a year! Meanwhile ... nearly 2,250 American manufacturing jobs in the Unites States have disappeared ... every single day! That's a not something new ... it's been the trend day in and day out, over and over again ... for 40 months straight!

Another fallout from Beijing's supercheap labor strategy is America's massive trade deficit with China. It just keeps exploding. The trade deficit is now exploding $1.5 billion per day. Putting that in perspective ... that means we spend an additional $1 million on Chinese products ... every single passing minute! But that's not the worst part. Guess what China is doing with all that money?

* First, the money we send China gets reinves ted in the PLA, China's massive military. (New reports say China has just built low-profile military bases on several disputed reefs in the Philippines!).

* Second, it goes back into funding more huge Chinese factories. With 200 million Chinese looking for jobs, China needs to build places for them to work! It also needs to buy HUGE stockpiles of raw resources to keep the factories running.

* Third, and most dangerous of all, the Chinese government uses a lot of their extra exporting income ... to pile up an absolutely SICK number of U.S. Treasury bonds!

That's right. China spends nearly $7.8 million an hour . . . or $187 million a day . . . snapping up US Treasuries and dollars. The movers and shakers in China now hold the U.S. hostage to over $120 billion in Treasuries! Why would the Chinese government sock so much faith in U.S. treasuries? Simple. It's not a vote in America's future at all. Instead, it's Beijing's way of backing America into a corner! Think about it!

The passing of Johnny Carson was a major story all over the English-speaking world. Carson's "Tonight Show" was an institution. It is said that at one point, "The Tonight Show" brought in 20% of NBC TV's revenue. Few may remember that Carson inherited the show in 1962 from Jack Paar, who was not funny. Paar had inherited it in 1957 from Steve Allen, who had invented the format. Allen was very funny.

Steve Allen's show started on KNX radio. He had begun with a half hour of music and chatter, but slowly began to reduce the time devoted to music. Ratings grew. People began showing up at the station. The show's producer moved Allen to a studio where people could watch it being broadcast. The show went to an hour, but KNX refused to pay him more money when it doubled his time slot, so he thought of a way to fill the time with less preparation. He began to invite Hollywood celebrities to come on the show for an interview. They came to plug their latest movies or records. His audience grew even more.

One night, Doris Day failed to show up. Allen had 30 minutes to fill. He picked up his microphone and went into the audience. He began to interview people at random. He thought very fast on his feet, and he made the interviews funny. He did it again another night. It became part of his show's format. This was basically his "Man in the Street" format, which he used to great effect. The format was perfect for his skills. He was a master improviser.

Few people ever have the talent that Steve Allen had. Of those who do, few ever get the opportunity to prove it. Almost no one invents a format that is not only perfect for his own abilities but persevere after his departure. Hardly anyone's invention produces a flow of revenue comparable to what "The Tonight Show" has produced, let alone its spin-offs and imitators. Carson made a huge fortune and quit while he was on top, as he had been for 30 years. He spent the rest of his life on his yacht, seeing places he wanted to see, and avoiding crowds, which he hated. That makes sense to me.

Would you believe this one: Two pensioners who were telling jokes about lawyers while queuing outside a New York court were arrested for disorderly conduct.

As this scene opens, there I stand, magnificent and resplendent in my purple cape with fancy gold trim, and my propeller beanie spinning . . . 'How do you tell when a lawyer is lying,' Harvey Kash (69) said to Carl Lanzisera (65). 'His lips are moving,' they chimed in unison.

A lawyer in front of them was not amused and had them arrested, says an IoL report.

My immediate reaction was an involuntary tightening of my trigger finger as I staggered about clutching my heart, and then, according to expert testimony, was enveloped in a confluence of outrage, fear, and panic in doses that were, according to sensitive instruments developed specifically for the purpose, off the charts! These two men are founders of Americans For Legal Reform, a group that uses confrontational tactics to push for greater public access to courts.

I have a number of friends, who since the latest U.S. election results have either seriously or jokingly claimed that they would welcome the opportunity of moving to Canada. I can only report that if you were to move here, you would likely be treated far better than our own citizens.

This commentary found in the Toronto Star: "I found it interesting that the Canadian Federal Government provides a single refugee with a monthly allowance of $1,890.00 and each can also get an additional $580.00 in social assistance for a total of $2,470.00. This compares very well to a single pensioner who after contributing to the growth and development of Canada for 40 to 50 years can only receive a monthly maximum of $1,012.00 in Old Age Pension and Guaranteed Income Supplement."

I say this with that look on my face that means, I can't believe my freaking ears when I hear it, nor my eyes when I read it, but . . . maybe our pensioners should apply as refugees!

I am left only to respond to my American friends that . . . you in the United States love to tell political jokes, while we in Canada have a very long tradition of electing them.

We should all take a minute to acknowledge the disaster that occurred in South and Southeast Asia . . .

I'm sure you all are aware that on Sunday an earthquake of epic proportions - 9.0 on the Richter scale - shook Indonesia. The earthquake and resulting tsunami has killed over 100,000 people . . . and has left millions more injured or homeless.

Hav ing travelled and worked throughout this area, my prayers go out to the victims of this catastrophe . . . and urge those of you who have the ability to help, to please join me in doing so.

A week from now some of you may be tempted to make a few New Year's resolutions.

My suggestion is that you make only one resolution, and that you make it today. Take a week to think it over. Make a few notes about how you plan to achieve it, and when, and at what price. Then confirm it on New Year's Eve if it's worth the effort.

Here's how I think you should think about it:

Why it is worth doing?

What happens if you don't do it?

What happens if you do achieve it?

What will you have to give up to achieve it?

If it is worth doing, then you ought to do it. Pay the price. If you don't have enough money or time or resources to complete it, find a successor.

Elvis Presley has been, by most accounts, dead for 24 years, but he hasn't let his relative inactivity over that period derail the gravy train. The bloated-faced turned sunken-cheeked King pulled in $40 million in earnings over the past year, good enough to be crowned "Top-Earning Dead Celebrity" (one of the few awards always bestowed posthumously and poorly attended, which is to say Mr. Presley could not be present).

Peanuts doodler Charles Schulz (also absent) was bridesmaid dead earner for the second consecutive year. He dawdled his way to $35 million. Other death profiteers include J.R.R. Tolkien, the man responsible for The Lord of the Rings trilogy - and for prolonging the career of rosy-cheeked man-child Elijah Wood - the Brits' King of Rock 'n' Roll, John Lennon; and Theodore Geisel, who was not high on the pot when he wrote Dr. Seuss. Tolkien and Lennon brought in $23 million and $21 million, respectively, while The Cat and the Hat's creator sold $18 million in green eggs and ham. That's a whole lotta bacon.

Despite this bit of impressive evidence to the contrary, death is generally regarded as a poor way for you to increase your wealth. For more information on how to become a top-earning dead celebrity, readers are directed to Forbes online.

Disclaimer: This is neither an endorsement to read Forbes magazine nor to die.